After a year of slight progress in 2025, with the return of the around 70,000 registrations, Alfa Romeo begins 2026 with a simple question: has the momentum finally begun... or is it already running out of steam? First-quarter figures provide a clear-cut answer. While the Junior is holding up well, the rest of the range is giving cause for serious concern, starting with the Tonale.
A slow start to the year in key markets
The overall picture is negative in the main European markets. In Italy, the brand's leading market, the decline was 13 %, with 7,383 registrations compared with 8,500 a year earlier. This decline is far from insignificant, especially when you look at the details: the Junior alone accounts for 4,380 units, the overwhelming majority of volumes.
Most striking is the absence of the Tonale (and unsurprisingly the Giulia and Stelvio) from the top 50 sales charts. A year earlier Tonale still accounted for over 3,000 registrations over the same period. The fall is therefore brutal, and in itself explains the overall decline in the Italian market.
Same trend in France, now Alfa Romeo's second-largest market worldwide. With 1,604 registrations in the first quarter, compared with 2,088 in 2025, the decline reached 23 %. Here again, the Junior dominated with 1,328 units. Behind it, the Tonale falls to 249 units, while the Giulia and Stelvio become almost anecdotal.
Germany is no exception to the rule, quite the contrary. A historically important market for the brand, it posted a drop of 30 %, from 1,934 to 1,352 registrations. The Junior (760 units) limited the damage, but the Tonale (206 units) confirmed its decline.
The United States, from pillar to weakness
The situation is even more worrying on the other side of the Atlantic. Long Alfa Romeo's second-largest market, the United States continues to collapse, with sales down 53 % over the quarter. With just 919 registrations compared with almost 2,000 a year earlier, the brand is reaching a critical point. The trend is all the more worrying in that it is set to continue: -18 % in 2024, -36 % in 2025, and now -53 % at the start of 2026. In three years, volumes have been more than halved. For Stellantis, the question of Alfa Romeo's long-term presence in this market is now clearly on the agenda.
Junior holds its own... but hits a ceiling
Launched in 2024, the Junior remains by far the strongest model in the range. It dominates everywhere: Italy, France, Germany, Spain... and often accounts for over 60 to 80 % of registrations, depending on the country.
But after driving growth in 2025, it already seems to be reaching a ceiling. In several markets, volumes are almost identical to those of the same period last year. In other words, it is no longer growing. This is a classic phenomenon: a launch creates a peak, then a stabilization. Except that in Alfa Romeo's case, there is no other model capable of taking up the slack.
The Tonale, a restyling without effect?
It was one of the issues at the start of the year: could the Tonale's restyling revive its career? The figures give a clear answer: no, at least for the time being.
Wherever data are available, the compact SUV is in sharp decline. In Italy, it disappeared from the top 50. In France and Germany, its volumes are marginal compared with the Junior. In Spain, it remains behind the Stelvio and far from the expected level. The Tonale was supposed to be a mainstay, but has become a secondary model. And without it, the range sorely lacks depth.
A few exceptions... but not enough
All is not negative, however. Some markets are showing encouraging momentum.
Turkey, for example, is up sharply with 590 registrations versus 347 a year earlier, buoyed in particular by an excellent March. Japan also surprised with 502 units compared with 224 in 2025, returning to levels close to 2023. The UK, meanwhile, remains stable with 739 registrations, confirming the improvement already seen in 2025.
But these good results remain marginal in volume terms, and do not compensate for the falls observed in the major markets.
A brand still dependent... and still blocked
In all, Alfa Romeo recorded around 15,300 registrations in the markets monitored in the first quarter of 2026, compared with over 18,000 a year earlier.
The conclusion is in line with previous years. The brand remains locked in a structural stagnation zone. The Junior maintains its level, but no longer allows for progress. The Tonale is in decline, and the Giulia and Stelvio now account for almost nothing in terms of volumes. More than ten years on, the 70,000-annual-registration ceiling still seems hard to break. And without any real range renewal or unexpected success, 2026 could well be like... all the previous years.
| Country | Q1 2026 | Evolution |
|---|---|---|
| Italy | 7383 | -13% |
| France | 1604 | -23% |
| Germany | 1352 | -30% |
| United States | 919 | -53% |
| Spain | 743 | -21% |
| United Kingdom | 739 | 0 |
| Turkey | 590 | 70% |
| Japan | 502 | 124% |
| Poland | 494 | -1,4% |
| Belgium | 372 | -24% |
| Austria | 360 | 0 |
| Switzerland | 242 | -3,2% |
| Netherlands | 227 | -15% |
| 15 300 | -16% |
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After the Giulia and Stelvio, which had every chance of competing with the best, the Tonale arrived with several handicaps. Personally, I love the design. On the other hand, the chassis (and driving pleasure), even if reworked, remains well below that of the Giulia Stelvio. Then there's the price. Over €50,000 for a rechargeable hybrid that offers virtually no customization (interior, wheels, brake calipers, etc.) completes the picture. At this price (close to that of the Stelvio when it first came out), it deserved a Giorgio platform and a minimum of Alfa Romeo spirit.
At the same time, it's just a restyling... a redesigned front end, thick, ugly Peugeot-style rims... no engine evolution, still quite high in terms of proportions... what did they expect?