Alfa Romeo's former CEO was aiming for 200,000 annual sales by 2027… except that the brand is down 25 %

We have now entered the fourth quarter of 2026. After a first half of the year that was already particularly challenging, it’s time to take another look at sales of’Alfa Romeo. And unfortunately, the figures for the first nine months of the year are not encouraging. Quite the contrary. As the Italian brand prepares to to unveil a highly anticipated concept car, its new car registrations continue to decline in nearly all of its major markets—to the point where they have fallen back to levels once thought to be typical of its worst years.

It must be said that Alfa Romeo’s situation is quite paradoxical. The brand still enjoys a strong image among enthusiasts; the Giulia and Stelvio continue to win fans over with their driving dynamics despite being on the market for ten years; and the Junior, launched in 2024, was intended to help attract a new customer base. Not to mention the Tonale, which has been on the market since 2022 and was restyled in late 2025, which was also expected to help boost sales.

Yet nothing seems to be really working. For several years now, Alfa Romeo has been selling between 60,000 and 70,000 cars annually worldwide—a far cry from the ambitions it set when it returned to the premium sedan and SUV market. Let’s remember that a few years ago, Alfa Romeo's former CEO announced his intention to break a previous Alfa Romeo record by selling more than 200,000 cars a year by 2027! So, where exactly will Alfa Romeo be in 2026? To find out, we analyzed vehicle registrations from January through September in the 13 markets we monitor regularly. And if our First-Half Results had already reported a 21% decline in Q3, and the situation has deteriorated further.

Italy: Even Italians aren't buying Alfa Romeos anymore

Let’s start, of course, with Italy, Alfa Romeo’s birthplace and, above all, its primary global market. It’s also where the brand should be able to count on a customer base that’s particularly attached to its history. After a difficult 2024, Alfa Romeo had nevertheless bounced back in 2025, with a rise of about 23 % in registrations, driven in particular by the arrival of the Junior. This gave reason to hope that the brand had finally found the model capable of sustainably reviving its sales.

Except that nine months later, the reality is stark. Between January and September 2026, Alfa Romeo registered only 16,050 cars in Italy, representing a 28.1% decline in Q3 compared to the same period in 2025. The brand is thus returning to sales volumes close to those of 2024, virtually erasing last year’s rebound.

And when you look at the rankings of the best-selling cars in Italy, the situation becomes even more concerning. The Alfa Romeo Junior ranks only 41st on the Top 50 list, with 8,554 registrations since the beginning of the year. Of these, only 280 are for the 100 % electric version. As for the Tonale, Stelvio, and Giulia, none of them appear among the country’s 50 best-selling models.

In other words, The Junior already accounts for more than half of Alfa Romeo's new car registrations in Italy. But that’s nowhere near enough to make up for the weakness of the rest of the lineup. And that’s probably what’s most concerning. How can we explain that a brand as iconic as Alfa Romeo is struggling so much to win over customers in its own market? Italians continue to buy SUVs, including those from foreign manufacturers. Models like the Jeep Avenger, Volkswagen T-Roc, Audi Q3, BMW X1, and Peugeot 3008 are finding their customer base.

But at Alfa Romeo, neither the Junior nor the Tonale is managing to generate the sales volumes that were hoped for. For the brand’s largest market, these figures are frankly hard to justify. And they show that the problem is likely not limited to the Giulia and Stelvio simply becoming outdated.

United States: Does Alfa Romeo Still Have a Future in This Market?

Nearly ten years ago, the United States represented one of Alfa Romeo’s greatest hopes. The return of the Giulia, followed by the arrival of the Stelvio, was expected to enable the Italian brand to establish a lasting presence in the American premium market. For a time, the United States was even its second-largest market worldwide. Today, those days seem long gone.

After a decline of 18 % between 2023 and 2024, followed by a decline of 36 % between 2024 and 2025, Alfa Romeo continues its downward trend with another dramatic drop: only 2,316 registrations between January and September 2026, compared with 4,776 a year earlier, representing a decline of approximately 51 %. As a result, the brand lost more than half of its U.S. sales in just one year.

There are many reasons for this. The Giulia and Stelvio are nearing the end of their product lifecycles, the Tonale has never really managed to gain a foothold, the Junior isn’t sold in the United States, and tariffs on imported vehicles further complicate the situation. Not to mention a relatively limited dealership network.

But beyond these explanations, one question now deserves to be asked: Can Alfa Romeo continue to invest in the U.S. market with such low sales volumes? With barely a few hundred cars registered each month, it’s hard to imagine a short-term turnaround without a thoroughly revamped lineup. Should the company even consider withdrawing from the U.S. market? The question—which would have seemed unthinkable a few years ago—is now worth asking.

Germany: The Junior isn't enough either

Another historically important market for Alfa Romeo is Germany—a country where the Giulia and Stelvio had managed to find their niche among customers who value performance and driving pleasure. But here again, the 2026 figures are very poor.

In the first nine months of the year, Alfa Romeo recorded 3,480 registrations, compared with 5,773 in 2025—a decline of nearly 40 %. The sales figures are particularly revealing:

• Alfa Romeo Junior: 2,104 units, including 439 electric vehicles
• Alfa Romeo Stelvio: 612 units
• Alfa Romeo Tonale: 494 units
• Alfa Romeo Giulia: 270 units

The Junior thus accounts for about 60 % of the brand’s registrations in Germany. Without it, Alfa Romeo would have sold fewer than 1,400 cars in nine months. But what’s most striking are the Tonale’s results. With only 494 registrations, the compact SUV is underperforming compared to the Stelvio—a model that is much older and nearing the end of its product cycle. For a model launched in 2022 and restyled in late 2025, it’s hard to call this a commercial success.

France: The Junior Prevents a Collapse

In France, the situation is slightly less dire, although the trend remains negative. Alfa Romeo has recorded a total of 4,180 registrations between January and September 2026, compared with 4,705 a year earlier, representing a decline of 11 %.

But when you look at the details of the models, it’s immediately clear why the brand is holding up better in France than elsewhere. Of these 4,180 registrations, we find:

• Alfa Romeo Junior: 3,379 units, including 1,680 electric vehicles
• Alfa Romeo Tonale: 665 units
• Alfa Romeo Giulia: 82 units
• Alfa Romeo Stelvio: 53 units
• Alfa Romeo 33 Stradale: 1 unit

Yes, you read that right: an Alfa Romeo 33 Stradale has been registered in France! But let's get back to the Junior. On its own, the small SUV represents nearly 81 % of Alfa Romeo's sales in France. That’s a significant number. In other words, eight out of every ten new Alfa Romeos sold in France are Juniors. Another French peculiarity: Nearly half of all registered Junior models are electric, with 1,680 units sold. This stands in stark contrast to Italy, where this engine remains very rare.

France is therefore likely one of the most striking examples of Alfa Romeo’s dependence on its smallest model. Without the Junior, the brand would have registered only 801 cars in nine months. That figure speaks volumes about the state of the rest of the lineup.

Spain, Poland, Turkey: The decline is nearly universal

The situation is hardly any better in other European countries.

In Spain, Alfa Romeo recorded 1,914 registrations, compared with 2,391 a year earlier—a decline of approximately 20 %. Once again, the Junior dominated sales by a wide margin with 1,497 units, ahead of the Tonale (247), the Stelvio (132), and the Giulia (38). The Junior thus accounts for more than 78 % of the brand’s registrations in Spain. As in France, Alfa Romeo seems to have almost become a brand that sells only a single model.

In Poland, where the Junior is actually produced at the Stellantis plant in Tychy, the results aren’t much more encouraging. With 1,483 registrations, Alfa Romeo is down 10 %. So even producing its newest model locally isn’t helping the brand make headway.

In Turkey, another market we monitor, Alfa Romeo’s registrations fell from 1,146 in 2025 to just 888 in 2026, a decline of more than 22 %.

And the other European markets aren’t helping to improve the overall picture either. Belgium saw a decline of 21 % with 950 registrations, Switzerland a decline of 10 % with 662 cars, Austria by about 12 % with 1,028 units, and the Netherlands by 25 % with 541 registrations. These are all markets where volumes are becoming particularly low.

Japan and the United Kingdom: the only two pieces of good news—but for how long?

Fortunately, it’s not all bad news for Alfa Romeo. In Japan, the brand posted a 25 % increase, rising from 1,076 registrations in the first nine months of 2025 to 1,349 in 2026. This welcome increase, following several difficult years, is largely due to the launch of the Junior. The urban SUV went on sale in Japan in mid-2025, with deliveries really picking up steam in the first quarter of 2026. This growth should therefore be viewed in context: Alfa Romeo is benefiting from a launch effect and a relatively low base of comparison.

In the United Kingdom, the trend is similar, but the result is significantly less dramatic. The brand’s registrations rose from 2,215 in 2025 to 2,224 in 2026—an increase of just 0.4 %. In other words, sales are stagnating, despite the Junior’s later arrival on this market.

These two countries show that the Junior is still capable of bringing new customers to Alfa Romeo. But they also raise a question: once the novelty wears off, what will remain? The example of Italy, where the Junior has been on the market for two years and sales are falling sharply, doesn’t exactly inspire optimism.

The Junior Saves Alfa Romeo, but the Tonale Poses a Real Problem

At this point, one thing is clear: without the Alfa Romeo Junior, the brand’s sales performance would likely be much worse. In the four markets for which we have detailed registration data for the model, the Junior alone accounted for 15,534 units between January and September 2026.

Country	Registered juniors	Of which electric
Italy	8 554	280
France	3 379	1 680
Germany	2 104	439
Spain	1 497	Not communicated
Total	15 534	2,399 minimum

What is striking is that the Junior has now become Alfa Romeo’s flagship model. In France and Spain, it accounts for about 80 % of sales. In Germany, 60 %. And in Italy, more than half.

But that also means that the other three models in the lineup are virtually obsolete. As for the Giulia and Stelvio, the situation is understandable. Both cars have been on the market for about ten years. For a long time, they represented the best Alfa Romeo had to offer in terms of driving pleasure, but they can’t compete forever with rivals that are updated much more frequently.

In contrast, the Tonale’s case is much harder to explain. Launched in 2022, this SUV was expected to become one of the brand’s main sales drivers. It was positioned in a very promising segment, featuring electrified powertrains and a design likely to appeal to a broader customer base. Four years later, the results have been disappointing. Even its facelift in late 2025 does not seem to have sparked the expected resurgence.

Only 37,000 new vehicle registrations in nine months

Overall, among the 13 markets we track, Alfa Romeo's performance is particularly concerning.

Country	January–September 2026	Evolution
Italy	16 050	-28 %
France	4 180	-11 %
Germany	3 480	-39 %
United States	2 316	-51 %
United Kingdom	2 224	+0,4 %
Spain	1 914	-19 %
Poland	1 483	-10 %
Japan	1 349	+25 %
Austria	1 028	-11 %
Belgium	950	-21 %
Turkey	888	-22 %
Switzerland	662	-10 %
Netherlands	541	-25 %
Total	37 065	Approximately -25 %

After a 21 % decline in the first half of the year, the decline now stands at approximately 25 % over the first nine months of the year, according to our tracking. And what is striking is that the situation is not improving over time. On the contrary, the decline appears to be accelerating. Of course, these 13 markets do not account for all of Alfa Romeo’s global sales. But they include many of its most important markets, starting with Italy, France, Germany, and the United States.

Under these circumstances, it’s hard to imagine how Alfa Romeo could exceed 60,000 global registrations in 2026. The brand, which has been selling between 60,000 and 70,000 cars a year for several years now, therefore risks returning to sales volumes reminiscent of its most difficult periods.

And that is the paradox: Alfa Romeo has an exceptional history, a community of enthusiasts that remains very active, and models that continue to inspire dreams. But commercially, the brand seems unable to regain sustainable momentum.

It is against this particularly challenging backdrop that Alfa Romeo is set to unveil a new concept car in a few days. We sincerely hope that this concept will herald a new Giulia or a future Giulietta. Because while Alfa Romeo needs to sell more SUVs to ensure its commercial survival, it must also return to models capable of embodying its DNA.