Stellantis faces €1.25 billion European fine

For years, European fines on CO₂ emissions have been seen as a theoretical threat by carmakers. In 2026, they are beginning to take on a whole new dimension. According to a new study by Dataforce, Stellantis has already accumulated a penalty risk of almost 1.25 billion euros over the first sixteen months of the new European regulatory cycle. A colossal figure which illustrates the extent to which the electric transition is now becoming a question of financial survival for the major historic automotive groups.

A few months earlier, we announced that Stellantis had already narrowly escaped a penalty estimated at over 800 million euros. on the Italian market alone, thanks to the temporary relaxation of European rules. But this breathing space granted by Brussels has not solved anything in substance. It merely postponed the problem.

Regulations that have become a trap for historic manufacturers

Since 2025, European CAFE regulations have imposed particularly stringent average CO₂ emissions on automakers. For the period 2025-2027, the average threshold is set at 93.6 g/km. Every gram over the target entails a penalty of 95 euros per vehicle sold.

On paper, the mechanism looks simple. In reality, it is explosive. According to calculations by Dataforce, between January 2025 and April 2026, the European automotive industry will have already accumulated almost 12.8 billion euros in theoretical emissions-related debts, compared with 9.7 billion euros in credits generated by the most virtuous manufacturers. The balance therefore remains largely negative. And the biggest losers are the historic European automakers, still heavily dependent on combustion and hybrid models.

Volkswagen remains the most exposed... but Stellantis is close behind

The most troubled carmaker today would be the Volkswagen Group, with a theoretical risk estimated at 2.3 billion euros. Despite massive investment in electric vehicles since dieselgate, the German automaker still posts average emissions of 100.7 g/km, well above its target of 94.6 g/km.

But Stellantis is not far behind. The group headed by Antonio Filosa is said to have already registered almost 2.3 million vehicles in Europe over the period studied, with average emissions of 102.1 g/km, against a target of 96.2 g/km. The result: a theoretical exposure of around 1.25 billion euros.

This figure confirms a trend already visible in Italy at the beginning of the year. At the time, Fiat appeared to be the group's main weak point, with emissions well below European targets. Peugeot, Jeep, Citroën, Opel and even Alfa Romeo were also major contributors to the problem. The real danger for Stellantis is therefore structural: despite its progress in electrification, the Group still sells a huge number of combustion and hybrid vehicles, notably via Fiat, Peugeot and Citroën. And it is precisely these volumes that are causing CAFE's calculations to explode.

Tesla and Chinese brands recoup European billions

The other major finding of the Dataforce study is even more politically sensitive. The European system risks provoking a gigantic financial transfer from European manufacturers to groups already specializing in electric vehicles, mainly Tesla and several Chinese manufacturers.

Tesla would today be the big winner in the system, with around 2.3 billion euros in theoretical CO₂ credits accumulated. Behind the American brand, Chinese groups are progressing at an impressive rate. BYD is said to have already accumulated 1.6 billion euros in credits, while Geely is said to have exceeded 1.4 billion. XPeng is said to be approaching 250 million. The logic of the system is therefore very clear: the more electric vehicles a manufacturer sells, the more credits it accumulates, which it can use or resell to groups in difficulty.

Leapmotor becomes a financial weapon for Stellantis

For several months now, the partnership between Stellantis and Leapmotor has been taking on considerable importance. The Chinese manufacturer, of which Stellantis owns 19 % in China and 51 % internationally, could become one of the main levers enabling the European group to avoid billions of euros in penalties over the next few years.

According to Dataforce, Leapmotor has already accumulated more than half a billion euros in theoretical credits with just 57,000 cars registered over the period studied. An impressive figure that shows just how strategic every electric vehicle sold becomes in European calculations.

It's probably no coincidence that Stellantis recently strengthened its alliance with the Chinese brand. The group now sees this partnership as one of the pillars of its new European industrial strategy. The aim is simple: to rapidly increase the share of zero-emission vehicles in European sales in order to artificially lower the group's average CO₂.

In this logic, Leapmotor is no longer just about selling low-cost electric cars. The brand also becomes a financial tool for avoiding potentially gigantic penalties.