F1 Abu Dhabi Grand Prix: what result must Ferrari achieve to overtake McLaren and win the championship?

The last Grand Prix of the 2024 season of Formula 1which takes place this weekend at the Yas Marina circuit in Abu Dhabi, promises to be decisive. The battle for the Constructors' World Championship title is more intense than ever between McLaren and the Scuderia Ferrari. With with only 21 points separating the two teams, anything is still possible. So, what results must Scuderia Ferrari achieve to take the title from McLaren in this breathless duel?

A tight duel: McLaren vs Ferrari

The current constructors' standings show a historic rivalry. McLaren leads with 640 points, Ferrari with 619. Both teams had an impressive season, with 5 wins and 20 podiums each. This equality of performance highlights the need for a perfect final race to separate the two giants.

For McLaren, Lando Norris and Oscar Piastri shone with their consistency and ability to maximize every opportunity. For Ferrari, Charles Leclerc and Carlos Sainz were able to take advantage of a competitive car in the second half of the season and aggressive strategies. But in Abu Dhabi, the Italian team will have to go beyond its limits if it hopes to win the grail.

Scenarios for Ferrari

Ferrari must score to win the constructors' championship at least 22 points ahead of McLaren. Here are the key scenarios that could enable the Scuderia to triumph :

1. Ferrari completes a double (1st and 2nd places) with the best lap :
   • Total : 44 points (25 for 1st place, 18 for 2nd, and 1 point for the best lap).
   • McLaren must not score more than 22 points (for example, 3rd and 6th place would be enough for Ferrari to overtake them).
2. Ferrari finishes 1st and 3rd with the fastest lap:
   • Total : 41 points (25 for 1st place, 15 for 3rd, and 1 point for the best lap).
   • McLaren must stay below 19 points (for example, a combined 4th and 6th place).
3. Ferrari takes 1st and 4th place without a best lap:
   • Total : 37 points (25 for victory, 12 for 4th place).
   • McLaren then had to score less 16 pointsor finish outside the top 5.
4. Ferrari finishes 1st and 5th with the fastest lap:
   • Total : 39 points (25 for victory, 10 for 5th place, and 1 point for the best lap).
   • McLaren will have to make do with modest results (6th and 7th places, for example).

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Challenges for Ferrari

The Yas Marina Circuit, known for its long straights and technical corners, will put the single-seaters and the teams' strategies to the test. Ferrari will have to excel in several key areas:

• Top speed : Crucial on this circuit, where overtaking in the DRS zones can make all the difference.
• Tire management : High temperatures and a series of technical bends call for perfect tire management.
• Strategic execution: Every pit stop and tactical decision must be impeccable to maximize podium chances.

What's more, Charles Leclerc and Carlos Sainz will have to avoid any collisions or driving errors that could jeopardize their hopes.

McLaren under pressure

For McLaren, the pressure is enormous. With a lead of just 21 points, Lando Norris and Oscar Piastri will have to avoid any slip-ups. The reliability of their single-seater will be a determining factor, as will the team's ability to respond to the strategic challenges posed by Ferrari. A podium finish or a combination of top-5 positions could be enough to maintain their lead.

An explosive finale in prospect

The Abu Dhabi Grand Prix promises to be the scene of an epic battle between Ferrari and McLaren. For Ferrari, victory depends on a perfect performance and mistakes by their rivals. For McLaren, it's a question of defending their position with consistency and intelligence.

The outcome is uncertain, but one thing is certain: this final Grand Prix may well be one of the most memorable of the 2024 season. See you on Sunday for the final verdict in the battle for the Constructors' World Championship title! And whatever the outcome, Frédéric Vasseur kept his promise !