Stellantis back on the rise in Italy... but one car accounts for half of all national production

After a catastrophic 2025, Stellantis is finally showing signs of recovery in Italy. Figures for the first quarter of 2026 confirm an expected, almost hoped-for trend reversal. But behind this upturn, a much more fragile reality is taking shape: a single car accounts for almost half of all national production.

A real recovery... but still fragile

The first months of 2026 mark a turning point. Between January and March, Stellantis' Italian plants produced 120,366 vehicles, including commercial vehicles, an increase of 9.5 % compared with 2025.

The rebound was driven primarily by passenger cars, where production climbed by 22 % to 73,841 units. Conversely, commercial vehicles fell by 5.8 %, penalized in particular by industrial adjustments at Atessa.

This turnaround means that we can expect to produce around 500,000 vehicles in Italy in 2026, compared with 379,706 in 2025. A clear improvement, but still a long way from pre-crisis levels... and especially from the 700,000-plus units expected by 2023. In other words, the upturn is there, but it's not yet enough to erase the historic downturn of recent years.

Melfi, Mirafiori... and Modena revive the machine

Against this backdrop, several plants are back in the black. Melfi impresses with a spectacular increase of 92.5 %, driven by the launch of the new Jeep Compass. Mirafiori follows with +42.4 %, thanks to the ramp-up of the Fiat 500, now offered in a hybrid version in addition to electric. At Pomigliano, growth is more moderate (+6.7 %), but the site remains a major industrial pillar.

Further north, the Maserati plant in Modena is also back on track, with a surge in production. In the first quarter, 205 cars were assembled there, compared with just 30 a year earlier. A spectacular increase of more than 500 %, made possible by the transfer from Turin of emblematic models such as the Maserati GranTurismo and GranCabrio, which now account for the bulk of the site's volumes.

But behind this deceptive growth, the reality is more nuanced. Volumes remain extremely low on an industrial scale. Modena alone symbolizes the current paradox for Stellantis in Italy: visible signs of recovery, but still far from a true large-scale revival.

La Pandina, the backbone of Italian industry

But the most striking fact of the new year lies elsewhere. Today, a single car accounts for almost half of Stellantis' Italian automotive production: the Fiat Panda, now known as the Pandina. Produced at Pomigliano, it accounts for around 47 % of national volumes. A colossal figure, almost alarming. For it reflects an extreme dependence on a single model, certainly popular and profitable, but which alone cannot carry the entire Italian automotive industry.

Without Pandina, national production would appear even more fragile. In a way, it has become the industrial crutch of a system that is struggling to renew itself.

Cassino, a symbol of persistent difficulties

At the other end of the scale, some plants continue to sink. Cassino remains the black spot for Stellantis in Italy. Production there fell by a further 37.4 % in the first quarter, with just 2,916 vehicles assembled. The Alfa Romeo Giulia and Stelvio are nearing the end of their cycle, while the Maserati Grecale is not enough to offset the drop in volumes.

Even more worryingly, the site still has no clearly allocated new models. Projections for 2026 even put annual production at around 13,000 units, an extremely low level. On the social front, the situation is becoming critical, with a large proportion of the workforce affected by support measures.

A conditional takeover

The start of 2026 thus marks a real change in momentum. Stellantis is also making progress on the European market, with sales up 5 %, proof that the product strategy is beginning to bear fruit. But this recovery is still based on fragile foundations: a few key models such as the 500 hybrid or the Jeep Compass, volumes that are still limited at sites like Modena, and a strong dependence on the Pandina.

All eyes now turn to May 21, 2026, when CEO Antonio Filosa is due to present the new industrial plan. This plan will have to answer a key question: how can we transform this cyclical rebound into a truly sustainable recovery?

For without new model assignments, a move up the industrial range and diversification of volumes, Italy could remain dependent on a precarious equilibrium... where a single car continues to sustain an entire industry.