The fall of Stellantis weighs heavily on France: Bpifrance's profitability plummets by 44 %

A few days after the announcement of the historic Stellantis, Its consequences already go far beyond the automotive sector. This time, the impact directly affects the French public accounts. The French public investment bank, Bpifrance, in which the French government holds a 6.65 % stake in the automotive group, has just demonstrated this in figures: despite a year of record business, its profitability will collapse by 44 % in 2025. In other words, the automotive group's crisis is not just industrial or stock market-related. It is becoming macro-economic.

A record year... that ends badly

On paper, 2025 should have been an excellent year for Bpifrance. The institution injected an unprecedented 72 billion euros into the French economy, with loans to businesses on the rise, massive support for industry and increased investment in innovation, AI and the energy transition.

The «counter-cyclical bank» role worked to full effect, with guarantees in excess of 30 billion euros and shareholders' equity up to 30 billion. But when it came time to do the accounts, the reality was quite different: net income fell to 501 million euros, compared with 896 million the previous year. The main reason for this is not to be found in SMEs, innovation or the ecological transition. It's in the automotive industry.

Stellantis, mainly responsible for the hole in the accounts

Bpifrance is Stellantis' third-largest shareholder, behind Exor and EPF (Établissement Peugeot Frères). This strategic position also means strong dependence on the Group's dividends. Yet these dividends have fallen sharply.

The dividend paid in 2025 was more than halved, resulting in a negative impact of 168 million euros for the public bank alone. And the situation is set to worsen in the new year, since Stellantis has already announced that it will pay no dividend at all in 2026 after a net loss due to 22 billion euros of exceptional charges.

This point is essential: Bpifrance's drop in profitability does not reflect a slowdown in the French economy, but directly the difficulties of a car manufacturer. CEO Nicolas Dufourcq implicitly admits that, to understand Bpifrance's intrinsic performance, it is necessary to virtually neutralize certain major holdings... including Stellantis.

The domino effect of the strategic reset

The link with recent announcements by the group headed by Antonio Filosa is now clear. The «reset» announced at the beginning of February (abandonment of power projects, massive write-downs, prioritization of the balance sheet and suspension of the dividend) was intended to put the company back on a sound financial footing. But this strategy immediately transfers the pain to its shareholders, including public shareholders.

Unlike a private shareholder, the French state is suffering a double impact here. On the one hand, European industrial sites remain under pressure, with declining volumes. On the other, falling dividends directly reduce the indirect financial resources of the public authorities. The automotive crisis has thus become a budgetary one.

A symbol of Europe's industrial fragility

And it's not just Stellantis that has penalized Bpifrance. Negative results from STMicroelectronics and Soitec also weighed heavily, proving that the slowdown is affecting the entire European technology industrial chain. But the automaker remains the triggering factor and the most politically visible. For through it, an entire section of European industrial strategy is showing its short-term financial limits.

This new episode changes the perception of the Stellantis «reset». Hitherto analyzed as an internal strategic turning point, it has become a matter of national interest for France. When an automotive group's dividend reduces the profitability of the 44 % public investment bank, the issue goes beyond industry alone. It affects the financing of the economy, industrial policy and the role of the State as shareholder.

The upcoming Investor Day in May will not only be a roadmap for Stellantis. It could also indirectly determine part of the French public financial balance for the next few years.