Stellantis has just avoided a fine of at least €800 million: Fiat the main culprit, Leapmotor the saviour?

While Stellantis With the announcement of massive investments in the United States and Latin America, the Group's European strategy appears much more defensive. Here, the aim is no longer to support dynamic growth, but to limit the damage caused by a regulatory framework deemed restrictive and costly. The recent relaxation of European rules on CO₂ emissions is therefore not anecdotal: it has enabled the group headed by Antonio Filosa to avoid a financial penalty of exceptional proportions.

According to a study by Dataforce, without this flexibility granted by Brussels, Stellantis would have faced a theoretical fine of over 800 million euros as early as 2025... in the Italian market alone. A figure that sheds new light on the group's repeated criticism of European climate policy.

2025: CO₂ standards become explosively expensive

From 2025 onwards, European carmakers had to contend with significantly stricter emissions limits. The average target was lowered to around 94g of CO₂ per kilometer, with a penalty set at 95 euros per excess gram and per vehicle sold. A formidable mechanism for groups heavily exposed to traditional combustion and hybrid powertrains. Faced with pressure from the industry, the European Commission finally agreed to change the rules of the game from an annual control to an average calculated over three years, between 2025 and 2027. This decision made it possible to avoid sanctions in the first year that could have reached staggering amounts. Dataforce's analysis shows precisely what would have happened without this opening.

Fiat on the front line, Stellantis massively exposed in Italy

In Italy, where Stellantis remains the market leader, the impact would have been particularly severe. Fiat appears to be the most exposed brand in the entire Italian market. Its target for 2025 was set at 99.2 g/km, but its actual average sales would have reached 117 g/km, resulting in a theoretical penalty of 251 million euros alone.

The situation was not much better for the Group's other brands. Peugeot would have generated 133 million euros in penalties, with 114 g/km against a target of 95.6 g/km. Jeep would have accumulated 103 million euros (113 g/km vs. 95.7 g/km), an amount identical to that of Citroën, also at 103 million, with 116 g/km against a target of 96.5 g/km. Opel is said to have added 67 million euros, while Alfa Romeo, though more confidential, contributed 58 million euros. In all, for passenger cars alone, Stellantis would have accumulated 715 million euros in theoretical penalties in Italy.

Leapmotor limits the damage, without changing the root of the problem

However, this amount would have been partially reduced thanks to Stellantis' Chinese partner Leapmotor, in which the Group holds a 19 % stake. Thanks to the strong growth of its electric vehicle sales, Leapmotor would have generated an estimated CO₂ credit of 70 million euros, bringing Stellantis' theoretical bill for the cars down to 645 million euros. A relative relief, which doesn't change the overall observation: without regulatory flexibility, the Group's financial exposure would have remained extremely heavy.

Volkswagen and Audi also heavily penalized

Stellantis would not have been an isolated case. The Dataforce study shows that several European manufacturers were also severely affected. Volkswagen would have had to pay a theoretical fine of 238 million euros, with an average of 118 g/km against a target of 95.7 g/km. The situation would have been even more critical at Audi. With a target set at 91.9 g/km and an actual level of 135 g/km, the brand with the rings would have incurred the heaviest individual penalty, estimated at 282 million euros. For the Volkswagen Group as a whole, the total would have exceeded half a billion euros.

Toyota and Chinese manufacturers in a strong position

Toyota, on the other hand, is said to have virtually escaped sanctions. Thanks to its hybrid strategy, the Japanese manufacturer would have posted 96 g/km against a target of 96.7 g/km, even enabling it to generate a theoretical credit of 8 million euros. The big winners of the system, however, would have been the electric 100 % manufacturers, most of them foreign. Byd would have accumulated a credit of 181 million euros, ahead of Tesla with 114 million, and Leapmotor with 70 million. A revealing snapshot of a European market where historic generalists find themselves penalized in the face of players already positioned in pure electric vehicles.

Utilities drive up Stellantis bill

For Stellantis, the situation would have been even worse if light commercial vehicles had been included. In this segment, Fiat would have generated an additional 92 million euros, with 172 g/km against a target of 150 g/km, bringing its total exposure for cars + LCVs to almost 350 million euros. Peugeot would have added 39 million euros, Citroën 24 million, and Opel 13 million. In all, commercial vehicles would have accounted for a further 168 million euros in penalties. Taking passenger cars and light commercial vehicles together, the theoretical penalty for Stellantis in Italy would have reached 813 million euros by 2025.

A problem postponed, but far from resolved

For the time being, Stellantis will not have to pay anything. The flexibility granted by Brussels has made it possible to postpone the deadline and avoid an immediate sanction, which would have weighed heavily on the group's accounts. But the problem is far from over. The targets to be reached by 2027 are still a long way off, and the time gained only reduces the pressure in the short term. Without a clear acceleration in the transition to low- and zero-emission models, those billions of euros in penalties, now theoretical, could quickly become very real. In this context, Antonio Filosa's speech takes on its full meaning: in Europe, the challenge is no longer simply to invest, but to prevent regulation from becoming an unsustainable structural cost for the mass automotive industry.