Stellantis still faces a €2.6 billion fine in Europe for unrealistic targets!

Early 2026, Stellantis gave the impression of having avoided the worst. Thanks to a last-minute relaxation of European rules on CO₂ emissions, the group escaped an immediate penalty in 2025 that could have exceeded 800 million euros on the Italian market alone. A victory, but one that does little to mask a far more worrying reality: in Europe, the regulatory trajectory remains virtually out of reach for a mass-market manufacturer as exposed as Stellantis. Behind the reprieve granted by Brussels, the clock is still ticking. And this time, it's the commercial vehicles that threaten to make the bill explode.

Problem postponed, never solved

Since 2025, European automakers have had to comply with drastically lowered emissions targets, with a simple and formidable penalty mechanism: every gram of CO₂ exceeding the target results in a fine per vehicle sold. While the European Commission has agreed to smooth the calculations over the period 2025-2027, it has not changed the thresholds to be reached in any way. For Stellantis, this framework remains extremely restrictive. In Italy, according to Dataforce data, the group would have accumulated more than 800 million euros in theoretical penalties in 2025 without this flexibility, with Fiat appearing as the main contributor, ahead of Peugeot, Citroën, Jeep, Opel and Alfa Romeo. And Italy is just one indicator of a much wider problem on a European scale.

Utilities, the Achilles heel of the transition

Where the situation becomes truly explosive is in the light commercial vehicle segment. According to Les Echos, sales of electric vans continue to plateau in Europe. The reasons are well known: high prices, still limited range and recharging constraints incompatible with the needs of craftsmen, fleets and small businesses. But European regulations also apply to commercial vehicles. And with nearly 30 % market share in this segment in Europe, Stellantis is automatically one of the most exposed groups. According to a study by the ICCT (International Council on Clean Transportation), the group is currently about 24 grams over its CO₂ target for commercial vehicles, compared with around 16 grams for Renault.

The earth-shattering figure: 2.6 billion euros

Internally, the facts have already been established. Maintaining an electrical mix of around 10 % in vans could cost Stellantis up to 2.6 billion euros in cumulative penalties by 2027. This figure last summer by Jean-Philippe Imparato when he headed up the Group's European activities, is now echoed by several analysts. The situation is all the more worrying in that the backlog accumulated from the first year of the 2025-2027 cycle makes it virtually impossible to catch up without a sudden break in the market. Unlike passenger cars, there is currently no "natural" switch to electric power for commercial vehicles.

Renault more cautious, Stellantis under pressure

Faced with this risk, strategies differ. Renault has already begun to prepare its accounts. According to Les Echos, the French automaker has made an initial provision of 98 million euros in the first half of 2025, essentially linked to the regulatory risk on CO₂ emissions, with commercial vehicles as the main exposure factor. At Stellantis, nothing has yet been made official. But the subject could come up as soon as the annual results are presented. Several analysts believe that the group could take advantage of a broader review of its assets to incorporate partial coverage of CO₂ risk, on cars as well as commercial vehicles.

Faced with this impasse, Stellantis and Renault are stepping up their lobbying efforts in Brussels. The objective is clear: to obtain greater flexibility, or even a revision of the specific targets for commercial vehicles. At the same time, Stellantis is reportedly trying to leverage commercial levers, by raising the prices of combustion-powered versions in an attempt to force demand towards electric vehicles. In Europe, current regulatory targets appear to be increasingly disconnected from actual market use.