Stellantis could announce a loss of around 8.6 billion euros due to its electric cars

The year 2025 will undoubtedly be remembered as the year of the big clean-up. Stellantis. In barely six months, the automotive group has made one decision after another with far-reaching consequences: bankruptcy of its joint venture in China, plants put on pause in Italyin France or Polandstop certain electrical programs, gradual withdrawal of plug-in hybrid models and 100 electric %s in North America, while at the same time developing massive investments in North America, in Latin Americabut also in Spain and North Africa. A vast industrial rebalancing, carried out at breakneck speed since the arrival of Antonio Filosa at the head of the group. But this reorganization comes at a cost. And it could be considerable.

The heavy legacy of electric

According to a report by Banca Akros, Stellantis is set to close the 2025 financial year with around 8.6 billion euros in exceptional electric-related charges. The cause: the cancellation or revision of numerous electric vehicle programs, in a context marked both by slowing demand and the changing rules of the game in the United States under the Trump administration. The group is due to present its results on February 26, and analysts estimate that of these 8.6 billion euros, around 2.6 billion will have a direct impact on cash flow. The remainder, nearly 6 billion euros, would correspond to so-called "non-cash" expenses, in line with what management had already hinted at when presenting the accounts for the third quarter of 2025.

A bill comparable to that of the American giants

To arrive at this estimate, Akros drew parallels with the major American automakers. General Motors recently announced $7.6 billion in electric-related charges, or around 4.1 % of its revenues. Ford, meanwhile, anticipates $12.5 billion in write-downs in 2025 alone, and up to $19.5 billion over the period 2025-2027. Applying Stellantis' average of 5.6 % to expected revenues in 2025, Akros logically arrives at the figure of 8.6 billion euros in electric vehicle-related write-downs. A hefty bill, but consistent with what's happening on the other side of the Atlantic.

A tense second half, but no surprises

However, the first half of the year was not neutral. In the first half of 2025, the group chaired by John Elkann had already booked around 2.1 billion euros in write-downs. This means that the second half of the year could concentrate most of the shock, with an additional 6.5 billion euros, including 1.3 billion in cash, directly affecting cash generation. As a direct consequence, Akros has revised downwards its operating free cash flow forecast for 2025, now expected to be -5.5 billion euros, compared with -4.2 billion previously.

Despite this difficult context, the broad outlines of the results remain broadly in line with market expectations. For 2025, Akros expects sales of 153.8 billion euros, down 2 %, adjusted EBIT of 2.9 billion euros and an operating margin down to 1.9 %. Adjusted earnings per share would fall to 0.74 euros, a far cry from the 2.49 euros recorded in 2024. In the short term, the electrical sector is weighing heavily on the accounts. But this "purge" could also have a virtuous effect.

Thermal engines from 2026 onwards

According to Banca Akros, the clean-up of the electric programs could put Stellantis on a sounder footing as early as 2026. The bank anticipates an improvement in product mix and volumes as early as the first quarter, driven by the return to prominence of highly profitable gasoline models, such as the Dodge Charger internal combustion version, the Jeep Compass and Ram pick-ups equipped with the Hemi V8 engine. A direction that may seem to run counter to the dominant discourse on electrification, but which responds to an increasingly obvious market reality, particularly in North America.

Despite a complex year-end 2025, Banca Akros maintains its Buy recommendation on Stellantis, with an unchanged target price of 12 euros. At the closing price of 8.67 euros on January 13, the upside potential would be around 38 %. For investors, the message is clear: 2025 will be painful, but it could also mark the start of a more pragmatic Stellantis, even if it means temporarily slowing down its electrical ambitions.