Here's the real reason why car prices are rising in Europe: we explain with the Alfa Romeo Quadrifoglio

When Alfa Romeo presented its latest Giulia and Stelvio Quadrifoglio in a "Collezione" edition, many first looked at the photos, the finishes, the presentation details. But something else immediately jumped out: the prices. How can we explain the fact that a Giulia Quadrifoglio priced under €70,000 a few years ago now happily tops the €100,000 mark in France, while the cars, in both philosophy and performance, remain more or less identical? Instinctively, we might point the finger at Stellantis and speak of a pure increase in margins. But in reality, the mechanics are far more regulatory than commercial. And above all, it goes far beyond Alfa Romeo.

The European rule that makes prices soar

Since 2020, carmakers operating in Europe have been subject to the CAFE law, for Corporate Average Fuel Economy. The principle is simple and implacable: each manufacturer must pay €95 per gram of CO₂ above a threshold set at 81 g/km on average sales. This is not a tax displayed to the customer in black and white, but a penalty that manufacturers integrate directly into their pricing grids.

Let's take the case of the Alfa Romeo Giulia Quadrifoglio. In its 2019 model year, its price was around €83,300, with CO₂ emissions measured at 237 g/km. In 2025, its list price in France now stands at €100,400. The difference? It comes neither from a radical change of engine, nor from a technological upheaval.

Yet the calculation is very simple: 237 g of CO₂, minus the European threshold of 81 g, gives 156 grams in excess. Multiplying these 156 grams by the €95 penalty, we arrive at a tax of €14,820, directly integrated into the selling price. Removing this sum, the "real" price of the car drops to around €85,580. In other words, very close to the original price.

The reasoning works in exactly the same way with the Alfa Romeo Stelvio Quadrifoglio. In 2018, it cost around €91,400. In 2025, it will cost €110,900. Emissions reach 267 g/km, 186 grams above the European threshold. The manufacturer's penalty is €17,670. Once removed, the real price will also be comparable to that of a few years ago.

	Alfa Romeo Giulia Quadrifoglio	Alfa Romeo Stelvio Quadrifoglio
Price list 2018	83 300 €	91 400 €
Price 2025	100 400 €	110 900 €
of which CAFE tax	14 820 €	17 670 €
Price 2025 without tax COFFEE	85 580 €	93 230 €

To put it plainly: the cars didn't take €20,000. It's the taxes that have taken €20,000. And that's not even the end of the story. Because this invisible tax paid by the manufacturer at the time of marketing is only the first layer. The second comes at registration.

In France, the ecological malus now reaches up to €70,000 for vehicles exceeding 194 g/km of CO₂. In the case of a Stelvio Quadrifoglio, a French buyer therefore suffers a double penalty: around €17,670 built into the price of the vehicle, then up to €70,000 paid out of pocket at the time of purchase. This represents almost €88,000 in cumulative taxation for a single car. In other words, a French customer literally pays twice for the same emissions.

This mechanism is not limited to Alfa Romeo. It has been extended to the entire European automotive industry. A Fiat 500 hybrid with around 120 g of CO₂ already has more than €3,700 in tax built into its price. In 2030, when the European threshold falls to 59 g/km, this penalty will climb to almost €5,800 for this small car.

For exceptional cars, the phenomenon is even more brutal. A Maserati MCPura with an emissions level of 279 g/km already carries a penalty of over €18,800, a figure that will exceed €20,900 by 2030. Even a much wiser Alfa Romeo Junior hybrid already carries a European tax of around €3,420 in its list price. And in almost all European countries, these amounts are then added to local taxes, whether in the form of purchase deductions, annual surcharges or user fees.

What's most alarming, however, is what's coming. In 2030, the European threshold will fall from 81 to just 59 g/km. At this level, even "reasonable" hybrid cars will be fiscally penalized. As for combustion-powered sports cars, they will become virtually unmarketable as new models, unless we can offer high-performance hybrid engines.

The logic is mathematical. The lower the thresholds, the higher the prices. Manufacturers have only three options: massively electrify their ranges, abandon combustion engines, or raise prices to absorb the penalties. This is precisely what which explains the difficulty of relaunching Abarth with internal combustion models in Europe.Ferrari and Lamborghini have understood for several years that they need to offer plug-in hybrid powertrains in their range. As a result, their customers pay less tax than a Fiat 500 customer. In short, think about it when comparing new car prices in the future!